ISRAEL, PALESTINE, AND LEBANON

This weeks readings center on the seemingly never ending conflict between Israel and the Palestinians — as well as the role played by groups and events in Lebanon and Jordan. To put it bluntly, there are no good or right answers to this mess. Valid and just causes and arguments exist on both sides. Both sides have also made colossal mistakes, resulting in the deaths of innocents on both sides and the loss of opportunities for a peaceful settlement. To this day Israel asserts that no moderate capable Palestinian faction exists with the ability to negotiate and to control the violence of their own groups. Israel may have a point here with regard to the historical violence and in-fighting among Palestinian splinter groups. At the same time, the Palestinians argue that Israel has never, and will never, give them a chance and the resources to prove they can handle security and both sides continue to go around in circles.
In his chapter for this week, Dr. Capron discusses the Lebanese group Hezbollah in some detail. This is indeed a strange animal in the traditional terrorist world. The U.S views Hezbollah as a terrorist group even after many nations, including in Western Europe, have dropped the designation. No surprise, here. In addition to the bombing of the U.S. Marine barracks in 1983 (the largest loss of U.S. casualties in a terrorist attack prior to 9-11), Hezbollah was also responsible for the 1985 hijacking of TWA Flight 847 and the resulting death of an American navy diver. In fact, Hezbollah was famous for its kidnapping tactics. It engaged in a series of brutal hostage takings starting in the mid-1980s and lasting for close to a decade. In that time, Hezbollah and its allies held and tortured a number of Western hostages — mostly American and British. Some were eventually released; some never made it home. Among those captured, tortured and killed in 1985 was William Buckley — the CIA Station Chief in Beirut. This was a shock for the agency and the Reagan administration, who were still in the midst of the Cold War with the Soviet Union and were used to how that game was played. For almost any intelligence service at the time, station chiefs were off limits. Now the U.S. was faced with the specter of being held hostage by what they viewed as a group of thugs and there was very little they could do about it.
Today, Hezbollah is something of a hybrid. For decades it had been a successful social welfare organization — providing services to its territories the weak and often non-existent Lebanese government was unable to provide. It is also one of the major political parties in Lebanons Parliament and is recognized as a legitimate political player by many nations. At the same time, it maintains a significant military capability on Israels border and is/was heavily involved, with Iran and Russia, in supporting Syrias Bashir Assad in his fight against Sunni rebel groups with Syrian civilians caught in the middle.
But I digress a bit here. So for our discussion purposes let us return to the Israeli-Palestinian question. The articles I added to the material in our text reflect the recent views that any idea of a two-state solution may be over. Sadly, as noted in a recent article in the Economist (I posted it in this module as an optional reading for those interested), the dispute now seems to be in a stalemate. The likelihood of a separate Palestinian state — once a given part of the discussion — now seems to be fading as many of the other Arab states no longer see this as a key issue in the region. This seems to be in part because a number of key Gulf states are now openly normalizing relations with Israel as a potential backstop against the power and influence of Iran, and partly because they are focusing on their own internal issues. In addition, previous supporters of the Palestinians such as Libya and Syria are now barely functioning states. Finally, the Palestinians are not being helped by their own government which is seen as corrupt and incompetent. The leader of the Palestinian Authority (PA), Mr. Abbas, is in his 17th year of what was supposed to be a four-year term. He seems in no hurry to hold new elections. 
It is hard to say, yet, whether President Biden may revive it. However, given everything else on the plate of the Biden Administration, I doubt it will be the priority of American administrations it once was. It may be that the future elections in Israel and in the Palestinian territories (if held) will play a far greater role than anything the U.S. can do — but only if elections on both sides usher in new faces and new perspectives. I am not holding my breath. As a result, I am less optimistic than I was when Dr. Capron and I wrote this book, but for different reasons.
This weeks question is a hard one and will likely generate passionate — but I am sure respectful — debate. In essence, I am asking you to bring the Palestinian/Israeli conflict to a successful conclusion for both sides after just one weeks worth of readings. But I couldnt resist. So here goes.

Discussion Question 4-1: Based on the readings for this week, and recent events, predict the future of the West Bank, Gaza, and Israel. Do you think a two-state solution is still possible? If yes, what has to happen for that to work? If not, what are the alternative solutions. What do you think the role of the United States should be, if any?