Pts 2 – text (3500 words) and 10 pages supporting with the forecasting and valuation models as an appendix. ( Please follow the lecture notes and use only ratios in the lectures i.e. ROE, ATO etc, )Due: Part 2 lecture 111. Prospective AnalysisForecast future financial performance. Use the four valuation models outlined in class (Exclude Price Multiple) to produce an estimate of firm value, and compare to stock price. Perform sensitivity analysis and discuss the results.1. Prepare your forecasts and write up the reasons for your forecast assumptions2. Prepare your valuations and write up just the $ answers to your 4 models((Exclude Price Multiple), as well as include share price on the date of your valuation (the date of your last set of reformatted financial statements (table 1)3. For all of your forecasting and cost of capital assumptions1, write up your reasons for your optimistic and pessimistic outcomes (best and worst they ever did in last5 years perhaps?) and calculate your sensitivity analysis. Only use the AOI model and Table 2 reports your sensitivity results. Again compare to share price and discuss your results2. ApplicationUsing your sensitivity analysis, and as a potential management consultant to your chosen firm, provide a discussion as to the possible opportunities for improvement, and potential challenges for your firm. Provide remedies for these concerns. You should be quite specific in any recommendations you make.1. Your sensitivity testing will show you that your firm will be more sensitive to one of:a. sales growth/cost of capitalb. PMc. ATO2. Depending on which of the three above is most important to your firm, come up with some ideas for specific things that your firm can do. For example, if sales growth matters don’t just say “increase sales”. You need to come up with creative ideas for your firm to increase sales. You never know, yours may be the next assignment sent on to your firm!
AE: Abnormal EarningsAOI: Abnormal Operating IncomeATO: Asset turnoveravg.: AverageC: Cash from OperationsCAPM: Capital Asset Pricing ModelCSE: Common Share Equityd: Dividends (the net cash flow to share-holders)F: Cash flow to & from Debt-holdersFCF: Free Cash FlowFLEV: Financial LeverageI: Cash InvestmentNBC: Net Borrowing costNFEat: Net Financial Expense after taxNFO: Net Financial ObligationsNOA: Net Operating AssetsNOPAT: Net Operating Profit after TaxPM: Profit MarginRNOA: Return on Net Operating AssetsROE: Return on EquitySpread: Difference between lending & borrowing ratesWACC: Weighted average cost of capital?: ChangeEIAT: Effective Interest After Tax
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