The visitation data in the Visit workbook cover a wide range of values. It might be appropriate to..

The visitation data in the Visit workbook cover a wide range of values. It might be appropriate to analyze the log10 of the visitation counts instead of the raw counts. a. Open the Visit workbook from the Chapter11 folder and save it as Visit Log Analysis. b. Create a new column in the workbook of the log10 counts of the Exit Glacier data (use the Excel function log10). c. Create a line plot of log10 (visitation) for the Exit Glacier site from 1990 to mid-1994. What seasonal values does this chart reveal that were hidden when you charted the raw counts? d. Use exponential smoothing to smooth

View complete question »The visitation data in the Visit workbook cover a wide range of values. It might be appropriate to analyze the log10 of the visitation counts instead of the raw counts. a. Open the Visit workbook from the Chapter11 folder and save it as Visit Log Analysis. b. Create a new column in the workbook of the log10 counts of the Exit Glacier data (use the Excel function log10). c. Create a line plot of log10 (visitation) for the Exit Glacier site from 1990 to mid-1994. What seasonal values does this chart reveal that were hidden when you charted the raw counts? d. Use exponential smoothing to smooth the log10 (visitation) data. Use a value of 0.15 for the location and linear effects, and use 0.05 for the seasonal effect. Project log10 (visitation) 12 months into the future. Untransform the projections and the prediction intervals by raising 10 to the power of log10 (visitation) [that is, if log10 (visitation) = 1.6, then visitation = 101.6 = 39.8]. What do you project for the next year at Exit Glacier? What are the 95% prediction intervals? Are the upper and lower limits reasonable? e. Redo your forecasts, using 0.01 and then 0.05 for the location parameter, 0.15 for the linear parameter, and 0.05 for the seasonal parameter. Which of the three projections results in the smallest standard error? f. Compare your chosen projections from Exercise 8, using the raw counts, with your chosen projections from this exercise, using the log10 transformed counts. Which would you use to project the 1994–1995 visitations? Which would you use to determine the amount of personnel you will need in the winter months and why? g. Save your changes to the workbook and write a report summarizing your conclusions.

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